Title Vodni režim Vranskog jezera u Dalmaciji i klimatski utjecaji : doktorski rad
Author Josip Rubinić
Mentor Ranko Žugaj (mentor)
Mentor Nevenka Ožanić (komentor)
Committee member Nevenka Ožanić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member Ranko Žugaj (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Čedomir Benac (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Barbara Karleuša (član povjerenstva)
Committee member Marija Šperac (član povjerenstva)
Granter University of Rijeka Faculty of Civil Engineering Rijeka
Defense date and country 2014-01-01, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline TECHNICAL SCIENCES Civil Engineering
Universal decimal classification (UDC ) 55 - Geology. Meteorology. Hydrology
Abstract U doktorskom je radu analiziran vodni režim krškoga priobalnog Vranskog
jezera u Dalmaciji (Hrvatska). Vransko jezero je kriptodepresija u neposrednoj blizini
mora. S morem komunicira kroz krško podzemlje te putem kanala prokopanog još u
18. stoljeću zbog čega se u iznimno sušnim razdobljima jezerske vode zaslanjuju.
Tada se salinitet višestruko povećava u odnosu na uobičajen te ugrožava jezerski
ekosustav, inače zaštićen kao park prirode. U radu se analiziraju trendovi oborina,
vodna bilanca jezera, temperatura zraka, dotoci u jezero te kolebanja razina jezera,
mora i sadržaj klorida. Utvrđeno je da je Vransko jezero vodni resurs u kojem se već u
sadašnjosti osjeća utjecaj klimatskih promjena/varijacija. Nastavljanjem njihove
prisutnosti u pitanje bi mogla doći opstojnost jezera kao slatkovodnog/bočatog
sustava.
Zbog krških značajki sliva i jezerskoga prostora dotoci i gubici vode iz jezera
se samo dijelom hidrološki prate, pa je razrađena metodologija za njihovu ukupnu
ocjenu. Modelska istraživanja uključivala su određivanje konceptualnoga modela
djelovanja jezerskoga sustava, kao i modela dotoka u jezerski sustav. Primijenjena su
simulacijska modeliranja hidroloških procesa vezanih uz istraživani prostor
Vranskoga jezera, kao i širega regionalnog prostora. Izražen je model za ocjenu
ukupnih godišnjih dotoka u jezerski sustav u uvjetima očekivanoga nastavka već
zabilježenih klimatskih promjena/varijacija do 2100., pri ćemu su korišteni rezultati
procjene hoda godišnjih oborina i temperatura zraka modelima RegCM3 i Aladin.
Modelima strojnoga učenja provedena su i modeliranja unutargodišnjih promjena
hidroloških stanja u jezeru i njegove kakvoće (sadržaja klorida). Dobiveni rezultati su
pokazali da primjena te generacije modela omogučava, kako otkrivanje inaće teško
utvrdljivih međuzavisnosti i u tako složenim sustavima kao što su vodni sustavi u
kršu, tako i simulaciju ponašanja takvih sustava u promijenjenim uvjetima s
prognozama stanja sustava putem karakterističnih hidroloških pokazatelja - razina
vode, količine zaslanjivanja i slično.
Abstract (english) The doctoral dissertation analyses the water regime of coastal karst Vransko
Lake in Dalmatia (Croatia). This is a crypto-depression in the immediate vicinity of
the sea with which it communicates through the karst underground and through a
canal dug back in the 18th century. For that reason, the lake water becomes saline in
extremely dry periods, when the salinity increases several times in relation to the
standard level, endangering the lake ecosystem protected as a nature park. The paper
analyses the lake water balance and precipitation trends, air temperature, inflows to
the lake and oscillations in the levels of the lake, the sea and the chloride content. It
has been identified that Vransko Lake is a water resource where the impact of the
climate change/variations is already felt and that their continuation might jeopardize
the existence of the lake as a freshwater/brackish system.
Due to karst characteristics of the basin and the lake area, the inflows of water
to the lake and losses of water from the lake are only partially monitored in
hydrological terms, which is why a methodology for their overall evaluation has been
developed. The model investigations included the definition of a conceptual model of
the action of the lake system, as well as of the model of inflow into the lake system.
Simulation modelling of hydrologic processes related to the investigated area of
Vransko Lake as well as of the wider region was applied. A model was developed for
the evaluation of overall annual inflows into the lake system in the conditions of the
expected continuation of the already registered climate change/variations until the
year 2100, using the results of estimation of the distribution of annual precipitation
and air temperatures obtained from the RegCM3 and Aladin models. Using the
machine learning models, annual changes of hydrological conditions in the lake and
its quality (chloride content) were modelled. The obtained results show that the
application of the models of this generation facilitates both the discovery of
interrelations in systems as complex as aquatic systems in the karst and the simulation
of the behaviour of such systems in the modified circumstances, with system status
forecasts on the basis of characteristic hydrologic indicators - water level, scope of
salinization, etc.
Keywords
modeliranje stanja i promjen
zaslanjivanje
klimatski utjecaji
vodna bilanca jezera
hidrologija krša
Vransko jezero
Keywords (english)
Modelling of status and changes
salinization
climate impacts
lake water balance
karst hydrology
Vransko Lake
Language croatian
URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:188:405835
Promotion 2014
Study programme Title: Civil Engineering; specializations in: Hydrotechnics and geotechnics, Mechanics Course: Hydrotechnics and geotechnics Study programme type: university Study level: postgraduate Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje tehničkih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje tehničkih znanosti)
Catalog URL https://libraries.uniri.hr/cgi-bin/unilib.cgi?form=D1130614010
Type of resource Text
Extent 212 str; 30 cm
File origin Born digital
Access conditions Open access
Terms of use
Created on 2017-01-19 19:15:02